What the Fed is doing and the stimulus package that Congress is likely to pass and the President sign will mitigate how long and deep a slowdown or recession will be but I don’t believe we can avoid a downturn now. As we know, monetary policy works with a lag and it will be months before the full impact of the Fed change works its way through the economy. Similarly the stimulus package most optimistically will hit in June or July of 2008. So while both will help and the beginning financial and economic responses to the Fed change should be felt much earlier than the middle of 2008, it is unlikely that this will be enough to prevent the downturn. I am glad that the Fed has moved aggressively over the last two weeks but wish the FOMC had recognized the seriousness of the credit crisis and its impact on the economy in general several months ago. Better late then never though as I suggest and I am certainly glad that the Fed has moved aggressively now.